Statistical Method for Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Basing on Signal Components Decomposition

Abstract

Since climate and environmental protection have become an important point for society, the industry and business have focused on increasing the share of renewable energy sources in the energy mix. This brought us new challenges. In this paper, we propose a method for photovoltaic power production forecasting. We compared our model with a state-of-the-art Auto Regressive model. We used Mean Absolute Error and Mean Absolute Percentage Error as metrics. Finally, our model turned out to be statistically better than reference model in generating one-hour and two-and-a-half-hour forecasts.